Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 is projected to land between 3.5% and 3.6%, according to the latest estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), AARP, and independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson. That would add roughly $73 a month to the average retired worker's benefit — the largest percentage increase beneficiaries have seen in three years — and push the typical monthly check above $2,100.
The projection comes as the inflation data used to calculate the annual adjustment has been running hotter than the 2.8% COLA retirees received for 2026, yet cooler than the elevated levels that produced 2023's record 8.7% raise. The official figure won't be locked in until the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces it on Oct. 14, 2026, after September's Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is released.
For the roughly 71 million Americans who receive Social Security benefits, the difference between a 3.5% and a 3.6% adjustment is small in dollar terms but meaningful for household budgets. And part of the projected raise could be offset by a higher Medicare Part B premium that is deducted directly from monthly checks before they ever reach a beneficiary's bank account.
A 3.5% to 3.6% Benefit Increase Is Taking Shape
The estimates have been drifting downward for months as inflation cooled. TSCL, an advocacy group for older Americans, now projects a 3.5% COLA for 2027, down one-tenth of a percentage point from its 3.6% estimate a month earlier and down from the 3.8% it forecast in August. AARP's latest analysis puts the adjustment at 3.6%, based on August CPI data.
Mary Johnson has moved the most. In June she projected a 4.7% raise for 2027; by July she had cut that to 3.7%, and her current forecast sits at 3.4%, according to Money and other outlets tracking her estimates.
In dollar terms, a 3.5% COLA would add about $73 to the average monthly retirement benefit of roughly $2,086 as of July 2026, while a 3.6% adjustment would add roughly $75. AARP and CNBC calculate that a 3.5% increase would lift the average check from about $2,026 to $2,099 per month. On an annual basis, that works out to roughly $870 to $900 more per year for the typical retiree.
A 3.5% adjustment would tie for the sixth-largest raise over the past 35 years, according to one analysis, and TSCL notes the projected figure would rank 19th among COLAs implemented since 1977. That's a reminder that while 3.5% looks modest next to 2023's 8.7%, it still sits above the long-run average.
From 8.7% to 2.8%: How 2027's COLA Stacks Up
Social Security's annual COLA is tied directly to inflation, which is why the numbers have swung so dramatically in recent years:
- 2023: 8.7% — the highest in four decades, driven by the post-pandemic inflation spike.
- 2024: 3.2% — inflation cooling but still elevated.
- 2025: 2.5% — the smallest raise since 2021.
- 2026: 2.8% — a modest bump as inflation continued to normalize.
- 2027 (projected): 3.5% to 3.6% — the largest increase since 2024.
The projected 2027 adjustment would be the highest in three years, reflecting a modest re-acceleration in the specific inflation index Social Security uses. One wild card that could still move the final number is energy prices — earlier in 2026, rising fuel costs were cited as a factor lifting projections as high as 3.8% before estimates drifted back down.
The Medicare Wild Card That Could Quietly Eat the Raise
For many retirees, the headline COLA isn't the whole story. Most Medicare enrollees have their Part B premium deducted directly from their Social Security check, and that premium is projected to climb in 2027.
The standard Part B premium is expected to rise about $6.60 per month, from $202.90 to roughly $209.50. On a $73-a-month COLA raise, that is nearly 9% of the increase gone before it reaches a beneficiary's pocket. TSCL and other advocates have long argued this gap means seniors feel less relief than the official COLA implies, largely because healthcare costs tend to rise faster than overall inflation.
It's a reminder, financial planners say, to budget for the net increase rather than the headline percentage, and to factor rising healthcare costs into any retirement income plan.
The Trust Fund Clock Is Still Ticking Toward 2033
The 2027 COLA is a short-term question. The larger long-term issue is Social Security's solvency. The program's retirement trust fund, known as OASI, is projected to be depleted around 2033, according to the latest Social Security trustees' report and a Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis that pinpoints February 2033. At that point, incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits, meaning automatic across-the-board cuts of roughly 22% unless Congress acts.
Some analyses project the date slightly earlier, at 2032, while others see 2034 depending on how the separate disability and retirement funds are treated. Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund faces a similar 2033 depletion date.
For financial planners and pre-retirees, this is arguably the more consequential number than any single COLA. The projected 3.5% to 3.6% raise for 2027 reflects today's inflation, but the trust fund timeline shapes how much of that benefit younger workers can actually expect to receive decades from now — a key variable in any retirement savings and claiming strategy.
Where Projections Stand Now
As of mid-September 2026, estimates have converged in a narrow band: TSCL at 3.5%, AARP at 3.6%, and Mary Johnson at 3.4%. The consensus is effectively a 3.5% adjustment, give or take a tenth of a percentage point.
That's higher than the 2.8% increase beneficiaries received for 2026 and higher than the 2.5% paid in 2025, but a far cry from 2023's 8.7% surge. The final number hinges entirely on September's CPI-W reading, which determines how much third-quarter inflation rose relative to the same period in 2025.
What Happens Next: The October 14 Announcement
The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, 2026, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September inflation data. The adjustment takes effect with the payments beneficiaries receive in January 2027.
Between now and then, the projection could still shift. If September's inflation data comes in higher or lower than expected — particularly in categories such as food, shelter, and energy that weigh heavily in the CPI-W — the final COLA could land a bit above or below the current 3.5% consensus.
Retirees watching the announcement can estimate their own increase by applying the percentage to their current benefit: a 3.5% COLA adds about $35 for every $1,000 of monthly benefit, or roughly $73 on the average $2,086 check.
The Bottom Line for Retirees
- The 2027 Social Security COLA is projected at 3.5% to 3.6%, up from 2.8% in 2026.
- A 3.5% raise would add about $73 a month to the average benefit, lifting the typical check to roughly $2,100.
- The official COLA will be announced Oct. 14, 2026, and takes effect in January 2027.
- A higher Medicare Part B premium, about $6.60 more per month, will trim part of the net increase.
- Longer term, the retirement trust fund is still projected to be depleted around 2033, at which point only about 78% of scheduled benefits would be payable without congressional action.
Social Security 2027 Benefit Increase: 3.5% COLA Projected
Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 is projected to land between 3.5% and 3.6%, according to the latest estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), AARP, and independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson. That would add roughly $73 a month to the average retired worker's benefit — the largest percentage increase beneficiaries have seen in three years — and push the typical monthly check above $2,100.
The projection comes as the inflation data used to calculate the annual adjustment has been running hotter than the 2.8% COLA retirees received for 2026, yet cooler than the elevated levels that produced 2023's record 8.7% raise. The official figure won't be locked in until the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces it on Oct. 14, 2026, after September's Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is released.
For the roughly 71 million Americans who receive Social Security benefits, the difference between a 3.5% and a 3.6% adjustment is small in dollar terms but meaningful for household budgets. And part of the projected raise could be offset by a higher Medicare Part B premium that is deducted directly from monthly checks before they ever reach a beneficiary's bank account.
A 3.5% to 3.6% Benefit Increase Is Taking Shape
The estimates have been drifting downward for months as inflation cooled. TSCL, an advocacy group for older Americans, now projects a 3.5% COLA for 2027, down one-tenth of a percentage point from its 3.6% estimate a month earlier and down from the 3.8% it forecast in August. AARP's latest analysis puts the adjustment at 3.6%, based on August CPI data.
Mary Johnson has moved the most. In June she projected a 4.7% raise for 2027; by July she had cut that to 3.7%, and her current forecast sits at 3.4%, according to Money and other outlets tracking her estimates.
In dollar terms, a 3.5% COLA would add about $73 to the average monthly retirement benefit of roughly $2,086 as of July 2026, while a 3.6% adjustment would add roughly $75. AARP and CNBC calculate that a 3.5% increase would lift the average check from about $2,026 to $2,099 per month. On an annual basis, that works out to roughly $870 to $900 more per year for the typical retiree.
A 3.5% adjustment would tie for the sixth-largest raise over the past 35 years, according to one analysis, and TSCL notes the projected figure would rank 19th among COLAs implemented since 1977. That's a reminder that while 3.5% looks modest next to 2023's 8.7%, it still sits above the long-run average.
From 8.7% to 2.8%: How 2027's COLA Stacks Up
Social Security's annual COLA is tied directly to inflation, which is why the numbers have swung so dramatically in recent years:
The projected 2027 adjustment would be the highest in three years, reflecting a modest re-acceleration in the specific inflation index Social Security uses. One wild card that could still move the final number is energy prices — earlier in 2026, rising fuel costs were cited as a factor lifting projections as high as 3.8% before estimates drifted back down.
The Medicare Wild Card That Could Quietly Eat the Raise
For many retirees, the headline COLA isn't the whole story. Most Medicare enrollees have their Part B premium deducted directly from their Social Security check, and that premium is projected to climb in 2027.
The standard Part B premium is expected to rise about $6.60 per month, from $202.90 to roughly $209.50. On a $73-a-month COLA raise, that is nearly 9% of the increase gone before it reaches a beneficiary's pocket. TSCL and other advocates have long argued this gap means seniors feel less relief than the official COLA implies, largely because healthcare costs tend to rise faster than overall inflation.
It's a reminder, financial planners say, to budget for the net increase rather than the headline percentage, and to factor rising healthcare costs into any retirement income plan.
The Trust Fund Clock Is Still Ticking Toward 2033
The 2027 COLA is a short-term question. The larger long-term issue is Social Security's solvency. The program's retirement trust fund, known as OASI, is projected to be depleted around 2033, according to the latest Social Security trustees' report and a Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis that pinpoints February 2033. At that point, incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits, meaning automatic across-the-board cuts of roughly 22% unless Congress acts.
Some analyses project the date slightly earlier, at 2032, while others see 2034 depending on how the separate disability and retirement funds are treated. Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund faces a similar 2033 depletion date.
For financial planners and pre-retirees, this is arguably the more consequential number than any single COLA. The projected 3.5% to 3.6% raise for 2027 reflects today's inflation, but the trust fund timeline shapes how much of that benefit younger workers can actually expect to receive decades from now — a key variable in any retirement savings and claiming strategy.
Where Projections Stand Now
As of mid-September 2026, estimates have converged in a narrow band: TSCL at 3.5%, AARP at 3.6%, and Mary Johnson at 3.4%. The consensus is effectively a 3.5% adjustment, give or take a tenth of a percentage point.
That's higher than the 2.8% increase beneficiaries received for 2026 and higher than the 2.5% paid in 2025, but a far cry from 2023's 8.7% surge. The final number hinges entirely on September's CPI-W reading, which determines how much third-quarter inflation rose relative to the same period in 2025.
What Happens Next: The October 14 Announcement
The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, 2026, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September inflation data. The adjustment takes effect with the payments beneficiaries receive in January 2027.
Between now and then, the projection could still shift. If September's inflation data comes in higher or lower than expected — particularly in categories such as food, shelter, and energy that weigh heavily in the CPI-W — the final COLA could land a bit above or below the current 3.5% consensus.
Retirees watching the announcement can estimate their own increase by applying the percentage to their current benefit: a 3.5% COLA adds about $35 for every $1,000 of monthly benefit, or roughly $73 on the average $2,086 check.
The Bottom Line for Retirees